Tulisan 6 (Indonesia's Economic Growth Slows)

Indonesia's Economic Growth Slows

Indonesia's economic expansion slowed slightly in the fourth quarter, dragging down the country's full-year growth, in a sign that the global slowdown hurt Southeast Asia's largest economy.

The official Central Statistics Agency said Tuesday the economy expanded by 6.11% from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, slowing from the 6.16% increase in the third quarter from the previous year. The gross domestic product contracted by 1.45% in the fourth quarter from the third, compared with 3.18% growth in the third quarter from the second.

Economic activity in the country typically slows down in the last quarter compared with the third quarter because of many public holidays.

The agency said Indonesia's GDP growth slowed to 6.23% for the full year from a 6.5% expansion in 2011.

The median forecast from 13 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires was for the fourth-quarter GDP to grow 6.20% from a year earlier, while the median full-year forecast from 10 economists is for 6.29% compared to a year earlier.

"The full-year 6.23% growth proved that we were affected by the global crisis," said the Statistics agency's chairman Suryamin in a news conference. "The short-term risk that the government needs to address is to fix the trade balance."

Indonesia, a major exporter of coal to China and India, saw its export value dropping 6.61% in 2012 to $190.04 billion, a further sign of the impact of the global economic crisis on Beijing and New Delhi.

The agency said private consumption, the backbone of Indonesia's economic growth, grew 5.36% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, slowing somewhat from 5.68% growth in the third quarter. Growth in investment also eased to 7.29% from 10.02%, while the government's spending contracted 3.34% on year against 3.22% on-year growth in the third quarter.

"Overall, it is still a decent figure," says OCBC Bank's O39.SG +0.52% economist Gundy Cahyadi. Mr. Cahyadi, however, said the December import data, which revealed a sharp fall capital goods could be a worrying trend—if it were to continue in the coming months—as it could point to slowing investment activities.

Mandiri Sekuritas economist Aldian Taloputra said the slowing economic expansion may keep Bank Indonesia reluctant to raise its benchmark overnight rate from its current historical 5.75% low to rein in the nation's current-account deficit. Mr. Taloputra said the central bank may instead resort to a softer measures, such as increasing the floor of the overnight interbank money market rate by total 50 basis points later this year to tighten liquidity. Such move won't cause drastic impacts on the overall economic activities, he said.

Businesses and economists, however, are still optimistic about Indonesia's economic prospects, thanks to rising middle-class income. The nation's middle class—defined as those who spend $2 to $20 a day—stands at 130 million people, according to the World Bank.

Listed PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo's ROTI.JK -1.90% spokesman Stephen Orlando told Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday the company will seek to raise one trillion rupiah ($100,000) from 2013 to 2014 from bond issuance, partly to boost its bread production.

A unit of Singapore's state-owned Temasek Holdings is planning to buy 26.1% of retailer PT Matahari Putra Prima as part of an agreement with majority stakeholder PT Multipolar, MLPL.JK -1.85% which will give the Singaporean investor an exposures to the country's healthy consumer spending.

Sumber : http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324445904578285081322220700